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Get a more detailed overview of the city you are interested to invest. Rather than just looking at the city as a whole, go that bit deeper. Look at the different districts, look at the property prices and how they have been impacted by changes i.e gentrification that has taken place in the last years. This could be a good indication of the impact on the prices for the future.
A good indication of how realistic the property prices are, can be gauged on how long properties stay on the market before being sold. When properties are slow to sell , this could indicate room for negotiation! When properties are moving quickly, then you have to move quickly too!
Macroeconomic data can also provide some valuable information, particularly when you are looking at it from a ‘supply /demand’ perspective. Comparing the number of households in the district and the number of housing units available, is a good indicator how the property prices could develop. When the demand is higher than the number of properties available on the market, prices will rise.
The age of the inhabitants in a district will certainly have an effect on the property prices. Districts with a younger age group, those finishing their studies starting new jobs, starting families etc create a demand for cafes , restaurants, entertainment outlets, kindergartens, organic markets etc enabling new businesses for flourish. This in itself creates a further demand as more people want to be part of this and so, is then reflected in the property prices. Back to the supply/demand.
When a district has a healthy employment rate, therefore a stronger purchasing power, this will undoubtable have a more positive effect on the future potential for property.
The average net income in a district to some degree can be related with the employment status, but of course, a lower net income district with a high employment rate with young residents could also become a future area for development. Sometime we also have to take a longer term view.
By considering the number of people per household in a district, this will help determine which district best match with your requirements and investment strategy. Buying a 3 room apartment for a family could also work well for student sharing accommodation, if there is a high student presence in that district and the demand is there.
Last year alone, the city’s population grew by a further 10,000. At 11,087, the number of building permits granted is down slightly from the peak registered last year; however, thanks to the City of Hamburg’s plans to significantly expand the housing supply with large areas of contiguous space, a high level of new construction activity can be expected over the coming years. Projects worthy of mention include the creation of the new Oberbillwerder district for mainly multi-storey residential construction and a potential for around 7,000 new apartments. Other plans include “Science City Bahrenfeld” in the Altona district which will offer the potential of further 2,500 new apartments. There is former commercial/industrial land in the northeast of the city and in Wilhelmsburg that could potentially be used for long-term redevelopment and conversion to residential use. In addition to new residential construction, the City of Hamburg is relying on other housing policy instruments, chiefly to ensure the provision of affordable living space. Such instruments include the consistent implementation of the “third mix” and an increasing use of its pre-emptive purchase rights. Despite the City Council’s housing policy efforts to-date, the housing market remains tense and calls for even more drastic measures such as a rental cap are becoming increasingly louder.
After a brief lull in the second half of 2018, the general rental price level rose again in the first six months of 2019, with asking rents reaching a new high of €12.65/sqm/month. The prime segment showed even stronger rental growth of 5.4% (€18.65/sqm/month) compared to the previous year and at 4.0%, the price rise in the lowest rental price category was only marginally lower, while growth in the new-build rental segment was extremely moderate at around 1%. As a reaction to the significant rise in the rental cost burden and resulting downward pressure on average rental price growth, the <45 sqm apartment size category, for example, continues to show strong price rises (almost 11%). These trends are reflected across the submarkets. While slight declines in rents can be observed in parts of Wandsbek, Bergedorf and Altona, significant increases can be observed south of the Elbe, for example in Harburg, and at the airport. Purchase prices are continuing to rise at a significantly higher rate than rental prices. The average purchase price has risen by 5.7% to €4,640 per sqm over the past 12 months, slightly exceeding the 5-year average (5.4%). In the market for condominium apartments, the prime and new-build segments have developed particularly well, with both of these segments recording above-average purchase price growth of 8.5%. With an average price level in the prime segment of €7,690 per sqm, Hamburg was only just beaten into third place by Frankfurt and Munich. In an analysis of submarkets, locations around the city centre are currently observing the strongest price increases with significant rises recorded between the city centre and Altona, and on the western periphery (Osdorf and Lurup). Spatial adjustment processes and price level increases alternate over time and are the result of the interplay between price trends and shifts in demand between local submarkets.